Norwich not tonight!

For the first time since I don't know when, the counters at the Norwich North by-election won't have to start counting until tomorrow morning. I think the last time a daytime result was on offer was the Honiton by-election in which Sir Peter Emery was victorious. 40-odd years ago! That was a good result - Emery stood to address the assembled masses and said, "The first thing you will want me to do is..." and a chap from the crowd conveniently interjected, "Bugger off back to Reading!". Gales of laughter from the Liberal Party and red faces from the Conservatives.

There are various reasons given as to why democratic tradition such as by-election night is knocked on the head. One is that it costs more to pay people, such as the police, to hang around until the early hours. Another is that bank clerks, traditionally employed for their rapid digit dexterity, are too knackered after a day counting other people's money in the financial product selling shops.

Whatever the reason, Norwich North has gone politically due south. No result until noon tomorrow. High Noon? Maybe. This has been a fairly fevered election, with UKIP and others putting up a bold fight for votes. Can the Conservatives cut the mustard? Maybe. But as Sir Jeremiah Colman wryly pointed out, he got rich by the amount of mustard people wasted on their plates. Can David Cameron get rich in votes or will the electorate waste them by staying at home?

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Norwich North By-Election

If you want a comprehensive study of this by-election, look no further than Look East from the BBC. A very good compilation of the events leading up to tomorrow's vote.

I predict a Tory win, not in emphatic style but rather like Roy Jenkins at Glasgow-Hillhead for the SDP. It could be that the Conservatives win on less that 33% of the vote. If that is the case, stand by for more verbal fisticuffs from the "losing" parties.

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Billy Goats Gruff

Gordon Brown said he wanted a "government of all the talents". He got a few willing helpers and put them into the House of Lords. They were instantly dubbed the GOATS. Now in biblical times sheep and goats looked rather similar. Both species had long ears and scruffy coats. Separating the sheep from the goats was not always an easy task. The sheep were considered flockish and docile, the goats independent and self-willed.

In many ways it was a good idea of Brown's. The people chosen were well respected and knew their subject. However, being in government is not the same as advising government. So the latest "defector" is Lord Darzi. He wants to go back to his medical world "to devote more time to his clinical role and academic research". And no doubt be paid a lot more.

That is going to be the problem from now on. We will get a House of Commons stuffed full of paid, full-time career politicians and a neutered House of Lords. One thing the Lords brings is wisdom. Where will the wisdom be in this brave new world after the election?

The next House of Commons will be a pretty sad place if all the mavericks, the independent spirits and the believers in something have been pushed aside by on-message apparatchiks. The power to stop it rests with us the electorate.

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